Public Dialogue on the Conflict in the Middle East and it's Implications on East Africa's Economy, Security and Geopolitics

Posted on: 2026-03-17 11:34:06

ACODE in partnership with other partners has organised a hybrid public dialogue to discuss the current conflict in the Middle East and its implications on the East African economy, security and the geopolitical landscape.

The rising tensions in the Middle East have once again drawn global attention to the region’s central role in shaping economic and security dynamics far beyond its borders. The current escalation involving Israel/United States, Iran and the Gulf States is already affecting global energy markets and trade routes, with consequences that extend into Africa.

East African countries, in particular, are closely tied to the Middle East through trade, labour migration, and investment flows. These connections, while economically beneficial, also increase the region’s exposure to external shocks. As the conflict intensifies, these interdependencies make East Africa vulnerable to disruptions that originate far beyond the continent.

Economic Pressures and Vulnerabilities

One of the most immediate effects of the conflict is the upward pressure on global fuel prices. Since many East African economies depend heavily on imported petroleum products, rising energy costs quickly translate into higher transportation expenses, inflation, and increased costs of essential goods. This places additional strain on households and public finances alike.

The impact is further amplified in agriculture, a sector that underpins livelihoods across the region. Access to key inputs such as fertilizers often sourced through global supply chains linked to the Middle East can become more uncertain or expensive during periods of geopolitical instability. As a result, food production and food security face heightened risks.

Trade, Remittances, and Investment Flows

The Middle East remains an important economic partner for many African countries. It is a destination for exports, a source of foreign investment, and a key host region for migrant workers. Any prolonged disruption in the region can therefore affect trade volumes, delay investment decisions, and reduce remittance inflows that support millions of households in East Africa.

At the same time, shifting global conditions may create uneven outcomes. While some resource-exporting countries could benefit from higher commodity prices, many others will struggle with rising import bills and reduced fiscal space.

Peace and Security Concerns

Beyond economic impacts, the conflict also carries security implications. The Middle East’s proximity to important maritime corridors, including the Red Sea, means that conflict can interfere with shipping routes that are vital for trade and humanitarian supplies into and out of East Africa.

There is also concern that broader geopolitical tensions could indirectly influence fragile contexts within the region. The Horn of Africa, already dealing with internal conflicts and governance challenges, may face additional pressures if global rivalries deepen or if non-state actors exploit the situation.

Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The crisis highlights Africa’s increasingly complex position in global geopolitics. Governments across the continent have generally taken cautious diplomatic stances, balancing relationships with multiple external partners while trying to safeguard national interests. However, Africa’s exposure to global shocks due to its its reliance on external systems for energy, finance, and trade underscores a deeper structural issue.