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Is this email not displaying correctly? Click here to view in browser Issue 17 | September 2023 |
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The government’s approach to climate change in the FY 2023/2024 shows that the phenomenon is real after all, but ‘Not Yet Uhuru’
By Dr Anthony Mugeere, Research Fellow, ACODE
It turns out climate change is not just a PHENOMENON. It is a real existential threat to humanity--all of us! And one of the leading issues to deal with by any government anywhere in the world may be. Certainly, a real danger to our livelihoods and survival, certainly. This was this evident in the Budget Speech presented by Finance, Planning and Economic Development Minister, Matia Kasaijja on June 15, 2023. Based on the theme: Full Monetisation of Uganda’s Economy through Commercial Agriculture, Industrialisation, Expanding and Broadening Services, Digital Transformation and Market Access, the speech highlighted the country’s Economic Growth Strategy and Outlook in which “mitigating the negative impact of climate change on the economy” was high among its priorities.1 Specific interventions in the budget speech include providing new sources of financing climate and green financing. A total of UGX. 2.2 trillion, has been allocated for food security, irrigation, climate change mitigation, value chain development, agricultural research and disease control, among others. The government also plans to finalize a framework for creating new and innovative Green Bonds for financing climate-smart projects. If you have been in the climate change research and advocacy spaces and not just the spectacle of environmental conservation, you must have taken note of the Minister’s reference to the specific issues. You must have noted his reference to green financing. You could also have enjoyed his reminder about the government’s support of agricultural research for the development of climate-resilient crops and animal species. The Minister of Finance further mentioned the government’s resolve to promote environmental conservation, restoration and protection of degraded water catchment areas and forest cover. There was even the odd cause for what has turned out to be the annual cause for optimism for constructing small, medium and large-scale irrigation schemes in water-stressed areas. I giggled and sat back on my sofa when the Minister mentioned the construction of earth dams at Unyama in Gulu, Namalu in Nakapiripirit, Sipi in Bulambuli, Kabuyanda in Isingiro, among others. There have been familiar issues in previous budget speeches. But no serious climate change activist or environmentalist per se tunes in to listen or even watch the national budget, cleverly choreographed or otherwise. There was a time when there was no mention of climate change in the budget speech. True environmental protection could be mentioned here and there but that was how far it could get. But the last couple or so budget speeches have been ‘surreal’ on the phenomenon. Yet, the compliance assessment of the FY 2023/24 budget to climate change interventions in the third National Development Plan (NDP III) is a clear reminder that we are--quite literary still in the woods as far as compliance on this issue is concerned. Based on ten (10) priority programmes selected due to their real or potential contribution to climate change and their strategic importance to the development process, the analysis--jointly done by the National Planning Authority (NPA) and the Advocates Coalition for Development (ACODE) --revealed that it is not yet Uhuru!2 Overall, the FY2023/24 Annual Budget to climate change interventions in NDP III was--according to the analysis--found unsatisfactory at 53.46 per cent which is slightly lower than last financial year’s compliance level of 64.7 per cent. Although the programmes on Sustainable Development of Petroleum Resources programme (83.3%) and Sustainable Minerals Development programme (80%) had a satisfactory level of compliance, the programmes of Human Capital Development (62.5%), Integrated transport infrastructure and services (61.1%), and tourism development (66.7%) had a moderately satisfactory level of compliance. The programmes of Sustainable Urbanisation and housing (56.7%), Natural Resources, Environment, Climate Change, Water and Land Management (56.3%), Agro-industrialization programme (28%), digital transformation (40%), Private Sector Development (0%) had an unsatisfactory level of compliance.3 For our government policymakers and programme implementers, the budget compliance assessment also revealed several emerging issues that require urgent attention. Key among these was the finding that the severe budget cuts (40%) that programmes endured after COVID-19, left them with no option but to concentrate theIr meagre resources on what they regard as their core mandates. Climate change was consequently relegated as the much-publicised post-COVID-19 agenda mainly focused on achieving quick economic recovery. Besides, the assessment showed that some programmes have no targets and no reports on output results from the climate change interventions while others--such as the one on Private Sector Development--were found to be ‘poor on reporting its achievements.’ Amid the euphoria of the budget ‘that provides opportunity for every Ugandan to have a stake in the economy’ the climate change wins might, on the face of it, prove to be a drop in the ocean in the struggle against the climate change phenomenon. Although it is not clear how much--in Uganda shillings terms--each of the components mentioned by the Minister in the budget speech, it is evident to many analysts that climate change is yet to be put on equal footing with the prioritization accorded to say, the gender and equity components in the budget. The NPA-ACODE analysis indicated that there are no targets for reporting on the frequency of early warnings to create preparedness to facilitate performance assessment. The government was also faulted for its failure to stick to existing planning documents as the standard budgeting tools which renders tracking and reporting on progress nightmare tasks. There are, for instance, no reported livestock-related climate smart interventions, yet animals--especially ruminants--contribute greatly to greenhouse gas emissions. For most key Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), there is a perennial failure to plan and budget for their climate change frameworks. In cases where this is accomplished, it is done at objective and not output level--yet the assessment criteria are based on outputs. So frustrating is the fact that such MDAs plan for interventions which are off-budget and can therefore be easily declared ‘non-funded priorities.’ The NPA-ACODE analysis indicated that there are no targets for reporting on the frequency of early warnings to create preparedness to facilitate performance assessment. The government was also faulted for its failure to stick to existing planning documents as the standard budgeting tools which renders tracking and reporting on progress nightmare tasks. There are, for instance, no reported livestock-related climate smart interventions, yet animals--especially ruminants--contribute greatly to greenhouse gas emissions. For most key Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), there is a perennial failure to plan and budget for their climate change frameworks. In cases where this is accomplished, it is done at objective and not output level--yet the assessment criteria are based on outputs. So frustrating is the fact that such MDAs plan for interventions which are off-budget and can therefore be easily declared ‘non-funded priorities.’ What do I propose?So, as Uganda keenly watches the implementation of the proposed climate change interventions during this financial year, I re-echo the previous call for the inculcation of climate change among the cross-cutting issues in all future budget framework papers and other programme documents, just like Gender and Equity. It is critical to incorporate off-budget support for climate change interventions into the programme planning and reporting framework and the deliberate financing for key programme climate change-related interventions to avoid a reduction in the planned targets. And, given the pivotal role that agriculture plays in our economy, there is a need to cushion the sector against climate change vulnerabilities. ConclusionFor now, we should celebrate the fact that climate change appears nearly as many times in the budget speech as health or infrastructural development. But the prioritization of the commitments is still low and nobody knows what exactly will be implemented. By and large, we recognise that the government’s approach to climate change in the FY 2023/2024 is a testament it considers the phenomenon real after all. But as Kenyan politician Oginga Odinga coined the title of his 1960s famous book, it is Not Yet Uhuru! At least to the majority of Ugandan climate change activists and environmentalists.
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